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Friday, 27 February 2015

Bulls super charged for Budget: Banks lift Sensex 473 pts

3:30 pm Market closing: It was a super run up to the Budget as bulls seem excited ahead of FM arun Jaitley's speech tomorrow. The Sensex was up 473.47 points or 1.6 percent at 29220.12,and the Nifty ended 160.75 points or 1.8 percent at 8844.60. About 1817 shares have advanced, 1065 shares declined, and 204 shares are unchanged.

PSU banks lead the upmove while HDFC Bank twins, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank were top gainers in the Sensex. Among the losers were ITC, GAIL, Wipro and HUL.

3:28 pm Market Expert: "After having seen a pragmatic & a transformational Railway Budget which laid down a vision for modernization/up gradation of overall rail infrastructure & enhancement of customer experience, which was beyond the announcement of new trains, the investing community was clearly encouraged by the Economic Survey which pointed out that the current macroeconomic scenario in India is more favorable than in other economies," says Devang Mehta, Senior VP & Head - Equity Advisory at Anand Rathi Financial Services.

"India has reached a sweet spot and that there is a scope for Big Bang reforms now. It also opens up space for the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates. Coupled with the forecast of a normal monsoon, this is likely to boost growth in the coming financial year. This also raises the expectations from the Union Budget due to be presented tomorrow," he adds.

3:25 pm Market extends gains: Realty and PSU banks led the market upmove today with the BSE Realty Index rising over 4 percent. All sectoral indices except FMCG are trading in green.

ICICI Bank and L&T are top contributors to Nifty's gain.

3:21 pm Clean Energy: India's renewable energy industry is likely to generate business opportunities worth $160 billion in the next five years, the Economic Survey said on Friday, the day before a budget that is set to boost clean energy funding.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is banking on renewables to fight climate change rather than committing to emission cuts like China. He has set ambitious clean-energy targets including raising solar capacity fivefold to 100 gigawatts (GW) by 2022.

"It offers a very good opportunity for businesses to set and scale up industry, leapfrog technologies and create volumes," the economic survey report said.

The report, authored by the government's chief economic adviser, Arvind Subramanian, said "immediate plans" include scaling up total renewable capacity to 170 GW from 33.8 GW.

U.S.-based SunEdison and First Solar have already said they would build more than 20,000 megawatts of clean energy capacity in India by 2022.

3:18 pm Chief Economic Advisor says: Economic Survey was written without being constrained by politics. According to advisor, the big picture today is that India is in a sweet spot.

3:14 pm Market Extends gains: The Sensex is up 488.65 points or 1.70 percent at 29235.30, and the Nifty up 166.90 points or 1.92 percent at 8850.75.

3:10 pm TRAI says: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) issues draft amendment to telecom tariff order 1999 for tariff revision. TRAI intends to reduce ceiling tariffs for national roaming services.

TRAI proposes ceiling tariff of 65 paise per minute for outgoing local calls, ceiling tariff of Re 1 per minute for outgoing inter-circle call.

The regulator proposes ceiling tariff of 45 paise per minute for incoming roaming calls. It proposes ceiling tariff of 20 paise per SMS for outgoing local SMS and 25 paise per SMS for outgoing inter-circle SMS.

3:06 pm PM Modi says: The Government is ready to change Land Bill if it is proved anti-farmer, says PM, adding, "We can make changes to Land Acquisition in interest of farmers."

The Government has altered Land Acquisition Bill based on demands of chief ministers. PM Modi urged opposition to support Land Bill.

3:04pm Expert on Economic Survey: The Economic Survey indicates much larger fiscal headroom becoming available to the Government on account of expected growth in the economy, lower oil prices and better targeting of subsidies, says Ranen Banerjee Partner - Public Finance and Urban Development, PwC India.

The Finance Commission Report, Railway Budget and now the Economic Survey convey a lot of confidence among the policy makers, he adds.

PwC expects that the Finance Minister will be able to reverse the decline in gross capital formation and also give further push to local consumption by leaving more money in the hands of the taxable population in his first full year budget.

3:00 pm Market Update: Buying interest continued in the market. The Sensex shot up 411.47 points or 1.43 percent to 29158.12 and the Nifty climbed 143.05 points or 1.65 percent to 8826.90 while the BSE Midcap gained 1.5 percent and Smallcap rose 1.23 percent.

Advancing shares outnumbered declining ones on the Bombay Stock Exchange by a ratio of 1735 to 1067 on the BSE.

Tata Power, Bank of Baroda and JSPL topped the buying list on Sensex, up 5 percent each followed by Larsen & Toubro, Sesa Sterlite, ICICI Bank, SBI, NMDC and IDFC with 3.5-4.5 percent.

2:50 pm Interview: "Housing for all should be demand booster for sanitation industry, says Cera Sanitaryware. The management told that there are no orders from government yet, but the company is seeing enquiries from corporates who want to build toilets for CSR (corporate social responsibility).

Margins from orders for low cost housing will be lower than other products, it adds.

2:49 pm Expert on Economic Survey: “Economic Survey rightly highlights the need for big bang reforms and focus on investment cycle to revive to economy," says Rajat Rajgarhia,MD - Institutional Equities at Motilal Oswal Securities.

The Economic Survey also highlights the need for fiscal consolidation and delivering the subsidies in a proper manner so it meets the purpose, he adds.

"With inflation below target levels and space for monetary easing, the Budget can well lay out clear roadmap to accelerate the growth momentum for India. Investors across the globe are looking at this event with lot of interest and will surely have a favorable view, once the Budget lays out the growth agenda," Rajgarhia says.

2:47 pm PM Modi says: Government believes in optimum utilisation of infrastructure. Have prevailed on black money issue in G20. Nobody will be shielded in black money probe.

2:42 pm Economic Survey:The Economic Survey 2014-15 has recommended that private investment must remain primary engine of the economy’s long-term growth. It expects growth to be boosted from FY17 onwards once the Goods and Services Tax is implemented.

It said that greater public investment in Railways will boost manufacturing competitiveness. The Rail Budget has hiked its Plan outlay for FY16 by 52 percent to Rs 1 lakh crore and set a capex target of Rs 8.5 lakh crore over the next five years. The Survey expects liquidity conditions in FY16 to remain comfortable and said that lower inflation has opened up space for reduction in interest rates.

2:37 pm Brokerage view: Deutsche Bank has buy rating on Jubilant Foodworks with a target of Rs 1850 per share. Bedrock of longstanding positive view on Jub Food is from higher operating leverage resulting in a 53 percent earnings CAGR over FY15-17E forms.

2:32 pm Economic Survey: Indian firms mopped up Rs 2.81 lakh crore from the markets during April-December period of the ongoing fiscal, with debt emerging as the most preferred route to garner funds for business needs, says the Economic Survey 2014-15. The trends remained sluggish in the primary stock market � where the companies raise funds through the sale of shares via instruments like IPOs and FPOs � despite a bullish equity market. It has been private placement of corporate bonds that was used the most to meet funding requirements of businesses during April-December period of the current fiscal (2014-15).

2:27 pm Gainers & losers: Tata Power is up 5.5 percent, L&T, ICICI Bnak, SBI and Sesa Sterlite are top gainers in the Sensex. Among the losers are ITC, GAIL, Wipro, TCS and HUL.

2:20 pm PM Modi says: Have raised over Rs 1 lakh crore from coal block auctions so far. Land acquisition ordinance is not anti-farmer. MNREGA will stay and we will take it forward.

2:15 pm PM Modi says: The nation has progressed due to efforts of every govt. Corruption remains an issue of concern.

2:10 pm PM Modi addresses Lok Sabha ahead of Budget. He says issue is about development, not about names of schemes. Stressing on Swach Bharat campaign, the PM also adds that cleanliness is key issue, need to address the root problem.

Don't miss: ITC slips 3%, fear of excise duty hike spook investors

It’s a terrific day on Dalal Street as the market is enthused by the Economic Survey and government's commitment to fiscal consolidation. The Nifty scored a century hitting 8800 while the Sensex rose more than 400 points.

The Macro-Economic Survey for FY15 painted an optimistic picture says India has reached a sweet spot and there is scope for big bang reforms now. FY16 GDP growth is seen at 8.1-8.5 percent. Economic Survey says the government will adhere to a fiscal deficit target of 4.1 percent of GDP in FY15.

The Sensex climbed up 401.94 points or 1.40 percent to 29148.59 and the Nifty rose 130.40 points or 1.50 percent to 8814.25. About 1713 shares have advanced, 989 shares declined, and 199 shares are unchanged on the BSE.

The market will have special trading session on Saturday for Union Budget FY16.

Pratik Gupta of Deutsche Equities says Union Budget will be growth oriented like the Rail Budget was. He expects much higher allocation to banks for recapitalisation. He also says the brokerage will buy Indian markets on every dip.

Shares of ICICI Bank, L&T, Sesa Sterlite, Tata Power, Tata Motors, SBI and Hindalco topped the buying list on Sensex, up 3-5 percent.

Global markets are quietly positive. China closed with gains of more than 0.3 percent while European markets too traded in the green. Investors are closely watching the second reading of the US Q4 GDP numbers later today. Analysts expect US GDP growth of 2.1 percent after 3.9 percent in third quarter. More information please visit this site

Economic Survey: Sensex up 350 pts, Nifty hits 8800; mkt gears up for Budget

1:30 pm Reaction to Economic Survey: Siddhartha Sanyal, Chief India Economist, Barclays says there is a lot of foreign institutional investor (FII) interest in fixed income instruments and the government should launch these soon in order to pool in significant capital.

In an interview  Sanyal says areas like defence and railways can get a lot of capital by means of bonds.

Furthermore, Sanyal expects the real growth rate for FY16 to be at 7.8 percent; WPI inflation at 3 percent and revenue growth in the low teens.

1:22 pm Market check: The Sensex is up 361.58 points or 1 percent at 29108.23 and the Nifty is up 122.60 points or 1 percent at 8806.45.  About 1683 shares have advanced, 982 shares declined, and 198 shares are unchanged.

1:15 pm Market outlook: The expectations from the Union Budget 2015-16 have come off slightly in the past few days, says Pratik Gupta, head of equities, Deutsche Bank. Speaking, Gupta says the Union Budget is expected to be growth-oriented, just like the Railway Budget, but long-term investors are more worried about the pending legislations. However, investors are positive on the Indian equity market given the global backdrop, commodity prices and flow of funds. “So, we would recommend buying the Indian market on every dip. India will see a good recovery though the timing of the recovery is not clear,” he adds.

Don't miss: ITC slips 3%, fear of excise duty hike spook investors

The market is gearing up with full gusto ahead of Union Budget as the government projected an impressive FY16 GDP growth target. According to Economic Survey, FY16 GDP growth is seen at 8.1-8.5 percent. The Sensex is up 338.88 points or 1 percent at 29085.53 and the Nifty is up 113.60 points or 1 percent at 8797.45. About 1659 shares have advanced, 972 shares declined, and 190 shares are unchanged.

Tata Power, L&T, Hindalco, ICICI Bank and Sesa are top gainers in the Sensex. Among the losers are ITC, GAIL, Wipro, TCS and HDFC.

Crude oil futures rebounded on Friday, with Brent heading for its biggest monthly gain since May 2009, as supply outages in the North Sea and renewed fears of gas supply disruption in Europe supported prices. A reduction in rig counts and expectations for better oil demand have helped Brent prices rise by around 15 percent so far this month from January's close of $52.99.

US crude is also on course for its first monthly rise in eight, but with a more modest gain of about 1.3 percent. More information please visit this site

Thursday, 26 February 2015

Sensex up over 100 pts; L&T, Tata Power lead gainers

The market bounced back today with the Nifty reclaiming 8700 level on first day of March series, supported by banking & financials, capital goods and metals stocks.

The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 132.66 points to 28879.31 and the 50-share NSE Nifty advanced 46.10 points to 8729.95. The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices outperformed benchmarks, rising 0.8 percent each.

Advancing shares outnumbered declining ones by a ratio of 2 to 1 on the Bombay Stock Exchange.

The market will have a special trading session on Saturday on the back of Union Budget 2015-16.

Rakesh Arora, Macquarie says expectations are running high and an 'incremental' Budget may not enthuse the market. Though, it won't be a radical one either, according to him.

"The market had run ahead of fundamentals, so a slight pullback would help cool things off. Industrial stocks are under owned and are best suited to play the India story," he adds.

Larsen & Toubro and Tata Power topped the buying list, up 3 percent as the Defence Ministry has shortlisted a consortium of Tata Power-Strategic Electronics Division (SED) and Larsen & Toubro for the battlefield management project, the order value of which in the production phase may be as much as Rs 50,000 crore. More information please visit this site

Wednesday, 25 February 2015

Nifty slips ahead of F&O expiry, Rail Budget; Sesa gains

The market remained under pressure ahead of expiry of February derivative contracts and Railway Budget today. The Sensex declined 63.44 points to 28944.55 and the Nifty fell 17.40 points to 8749.85.

The broader markets declined too; the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices lost 0.2 percent each. About 830 shares have advanced, 1067 shares declined, and 177 shares are unchanged on the BSE.

Neelkanth Mishra, Credit Suisse says in the last ten days, the refrain "Budget will disappoint" has been heard often, tempering some of the high expectations. However, both the earlier excitement and the reversal have been rather vague in terms of concrete expectations, he adds.

"We expect a growth-boosting stimulus: a rise in non-defence capex & believe an FRBM push-out, if for the right reasons would not hurt yield much," Mishra says.

Infosys, Sun Pharma, Bajaj Auto and Hindalco Industries declined 1-1.8 percent followed by HDFC Bank, L&T, Axis Bank, SBI, HUL, Dr Reddy's Labs, Maruti and Cipla with 0.4-0.8 percent loss.

However, Sesa Sterlite gained 1.7 percent as Goa CM Laxmikant Parsekar says Ministry of Environment, Forest will lift suspension of Goa’s mining leases within a week.

HDFC, ICICI Bank, ONGC, Reliance Industries, Tata Motors and BHEL climbed 0.3-0.9 percent. More information please visit this site

Late sell-off drags market: Sensex, Nifty end flat

03:30 pm Market close: Late sell drags the market sharply. The Sensex ended up 3.33 points at 29007.99 and the Nifty was up 5.15 points at 8767.25. About 1234 shares have advanced, 1659 shares declined and 201 shares are unchanged.

Tata Steel, Tata Power, Dr Reddy's Labs, Sun Pharma and BHEL were among the losers. Gainers were HDFC, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, Wipro and ITC.

03:00pm Market Consolidates: The Sensex rose 13.51 points to 29018.17 and the Nifty advanced 6.70 points to 8768.80.

About 1209 shares have advanced, 1611 shares declined, and 194 shares are unchanged on the BSE.

02:45pm Budget Expectations: India is likely cut its annual fertiliser subsidy by 4 percent to around Rs 70,000 crore in its Budget proposals for fiscal year 2015-16, two government sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

India had earmarked a subsidy of Rs 72,970 crore for the current fiscal year ending March 31. 

"There is no plan to increase fertiliser prices," one of the sources told Media. He said the roadmap for reforms in the subsidy structure for the fertiliser sector would be unveiled after the Budget. 

02:30pm South Indian Bank in focus: The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday notified that the aggregate share holdings in the bank by non-resident Indians (NRI)/persons of Indian Origin (PIO)/foreign institutional investors (FII)/registered foreign portfolios investors (RFPIs) and through global depository receipts (GDR)/American depository receipts (ADR)/foreign direct investment (FDI) in the primary/secondary markets have gone below the prescribed threshold ban limit stipulated under the extant FDI policy.

Hence, the restrictions placed on the purchase of shares of the above bank are withdrawn with immediate effect, it adds.

02:00pm Market Check

The market erased its morning gains as the Nifty came off its highs, trading below 8800 while midcap traded in the red giving up its gains. The market breadth was weak with more stocks on declining end.

The Sensex advanced 27.63 points to 29032.29 and the Nifty rose 5.45 points to 8767.55. The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices fell marginally.

Michael Kurtz, chief Asia equity strategist at Nomura expects a very strong Budget with a focus on reforms, infrastucture spending may be hiked to 2.5 percent of GDP and India remains largest overweight in the Asia basket.

Shares of HDFC Bank, TCS, L&T, Sun Pharma, HUL, ICICI Bank, Hero Motocorp and Tata Steel declined 0.3-1.4 percent. Reliance Industries also came off its high, up 0.3 percent. However, HDFC, Infosys, Tata Motors, ONGC, Bharti Airtel, M&M and Wipro gained 1-2 percent.

The rupee appreciated today, trading at 62.05 a dollar against a close of 62.19 in previous session due to weak dollar on back of heavy capital inflows.

Globally it is a mixed day. In Asia, while China and Japan closed in the red, Korea and Taiwan ended with gains. European markets are mixed as Greece fears subsided. This after the list of reforms presented by Greece met the approval of creditors and euro zone neighbours. More information please visit this site

Tuesday, 24 February 2015

Nifty holds 8800, Midcap gains too; HDFC, RIL, ONGC lead

10:30am Moody's on India: Moody's Investors Service said that its assessment of India's credit ratings will be determined mainly by the extent of its fiscal reforms, not recent revisions to its economic growth data.
The comments come a day after rival Standard & Poor's said India must boost growth, cut its fiscal deficit and fulfil promises of financial and fiscal reforms in order to justify an upgrade in its credit rating.

The government on Saturday will present its fiscal budget for the new fiscal year starting in April amid high hopes that it will find a way to boost capital spending while exercising fiscal restraint.

"The upward revisions of India's GDP growth based on methodological and base year updates -- highlight the strength of the economy, but do not impact Moody's overall assessment of the sovereign's credit profile," the agency said.

"Rather, fiscal and structural reform policies will determine the extent to which accelerating growth will buttress the sovereign credit profile."

10:00am Market Check

The market continued to see buying interest with the Nifty holding 8800-mark supported by banking & financials, oil & gas and metals stocks.

The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 167.87 points to 29172.53 and the 50-share NSE Nifty climbed 51.10 points to 8813.20. The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices gained half a percent too.

About 1261 shares have advanced, 752 shares declined, and 176 shares are unchanged on the BSE.

Adrian Mowat, JP Morgan says India remains the highest net overweight market in emerging markets.

Shares of HDFC, Reliance Industries, ONGC, Mahindra & Mahindra and Sesa Sterlite topped the buying list, up 1.5-2 percent. Infosys, ICICI Bank and Tata Motors gained 1 percent each. However, ITC, L&T, Sun Pharma, HUL and Hero Motocorp saw marginal loss. More information please visit this site

Sensex, Nifty end flat; HUL & BHEL up 2-3%, ONGC falls

03:30 pm Market close: The market has ended on flat note. The Sensex was up 29.55 points at 29004.66 and the Nifty ended up 7.15 points at 8762.10. About 1165 shares have advanced, 1717 shares declined and 201 shares are unchanged.

HUL, L&T, BHEL, ITC and Cipla were top gainers in the Sensex. Among the top losers were Sesa Sterlite, ONGC, Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel and Tata Motors.

03:20pm Budget Expectations: ICICIdirect says revving up growth via capacity creation will take precedence over demand led growth as reversing the decline in the capex cycle will be the key prerogative of the NDA government. Hence, according to the report, Budget 2015-16 will clearly attempt to contain expenditure and divert resources optimally to kick start the investment cycle, going ahead. 

"The Budget should clearly lay down a roadmap on critical issues like GST and reviving the capex cycle by optimum utilisation of surplus PSU cash. Further, clarity on international taxation issues like GAAR, newer initiatives like ‘Make in India’ and ‘Smart Cities’ along with mentioning avenues for raising long-term funds for creating infrastructure and measures to attract/increase financial saving in the economy would be the key things to watch out for in this Budget. This intent/roadmap will provide more clarity on the prerogative of the government and requisite direction to the markets, which, in turn, will raise the confidence of the private sector," the report says. 

03:10pm Market Update: The Sensex rose 43.55 points to 29018.66 and the Nifty advanced 12.25 points to 8767.20 led by capital goods, IT and FMCG stocks.

The market breadth remained weak as about 1137 shares have advanced and 1724 shares declined on the BSE.

02:55pm FII View: The stock market has been resilient to weak corporate earnings for the December quarter, and the trend could continue for a while, feels brokerage house JP Morgan.

"The street cut earnings estimates for FY15E and FY16E by 3-4 percent. Despite these cuts, we think current estimates for earnings growth for the next two years at 10 percent and 18 percent look vulnerable to further downgrades," says the JP Morgan note to clients, adding that an earnings recovery could take 4-6 quarters to gain momentum.

Yet, the brokerage feels the market is not vulnerable to earnings cuts and that the divergence between market performance and corporate earnings could continue in the near term.

"We have seen this narrative twice over the last decade – continuing for four quarters each over 2007-08 and over 2012-13. During these phases also the changes in earnings expectations and the market performance were inversely correlated," the JP Morgan note says.

According to JP Morgan, the key driver of market performance in the current cycle has been surplus global liquidity and relative appeal within emerging markets.

"We would expect markets to remain well supported until these drivers remain in place, with investors extending the timeframe for their investments to pay off," the note says.

02:25pm Interview: Naresh Bhansali, CEO-Fin, strategy & business development & CFO, Emami is confident of surpassing their earlier growth guidance of 15-17 percent.

With the ramp-up in production of the recently launched products in the next fiscal, there would be marked improvement in the finances of the company, he said.

According to Bhansali, the company is actively looking for global and domestic acquisitions.

The company is all set to strengthen its Zandu Healthcare base and expand its brand portfolio in FY16. It would be looking at new launches to help increase consumer spending.

02:00pm Market Check

The market gained strength amid consolidation in afternoon trade as FMCG, capital goods, technology and banks stocks extended gains. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 139.17 points to 29114.28 and the 50-share NSE Nifty advanced 38.90 points to 8793.85.

However, the broader markets remained marginally under pressure. Declining shares outnumbered advancing ones by a ratio of 1594 to 1087 on the BSE.

The government tabled the 14th finance commission report. It recommended that the centre should transfer 42 percent of the divisible pool to the states, including taxes and grants against 32 percent earlier.

Prabodh Agarwal of IIFL says investor mood is very positive at the moment. He advises not to be distracted by the Budget and keep buying this market. Government should look at higher spending in infrastructure which should be funded by increasing tax rates this Budget, he adds.

Shares of ITC, L&T, HUL, Cipla, BHEL, NTPC and GAIL gained 1-2 percent while ONGC, Tata Motors, Reliance Industries, Sesa Sterlite, Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel and Hindalco declined 1-3 percent.

On the global front, Japan closed with gains of more than 0.7 percent while Europe traded flat. All eyes are on Greece as the Eurogroup is expected to mull Greece's revised list of reform proposals. Investors were also cautious ahead of US Fed chairperson Janet Yellen's testimoney before Congress over next 2 days. More information please visit this site